#Marketbuzz 17 Juni 2015, BBNI, BBRI, TLKM By @pmmcresearch

Indonesia:

 

  • MYOR IJ: Seeks IDR 500bn bank loan to fund working capital.
  • AISA IJ: The food co. is in talks to build rice mill in Papua. The company plans to operate 17 rice plants in total and aims for 5% market share by 2020. Currently, AISA has commenced 3 plants and another 3 are under construction and to fully operate in mid-2016.
  • MAIN IJ: The poultry feed co. eyes 10% sales increase this yr to IDR 4.95tn vs. IDR 4.5tn last yr.
  • ASII IJ: Astra’s cars and motorcycles sales dropped significantly in May. Both recorded a decrease in sales of 14.3% and 32.6% yoy, respectively.

PTPP IJ

Current Rating: Accumulate

Current T/P: IDR 3,935

  • PP Property (PPRO IJ), one of PTPP’s subsidiaries, booked IDR 883.6 billion (+204% yoy) marketing sales up to 5M15, 35.3% of 2015’s marketing sales target of IDR 2.5 trillion.
  • Main contributors for PPRO’s marketing sales are apartments in Grand Kamala Lagoon and Grand Sungkono Lagoon projects.
  • PTPP revenue slipped 0.8% to IDR 1.98 trillion and net income climbed 52.3% to IDR 93.5 billion in 1Q15, thanks to property segment.
  • In 5M15, PTPP booked IDR 9.8 trillion new contracts, 36.3% of the Company’s target of IDR 27 trillion for 2015.
  • Slower realization of government projects hurt the construction industry with most of the construction companies recorded lower revenues and net incomes.
  • As its recent market valuation has plunged, we upgrade PTPP’s rating to “Accumulate” from “Neutral” based on FY15’s EPS of IDR 134 and WACC of 10.9%.

 

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)

Current Rating: BUY

Current TP: 7,650

  • Bank Negara recorded a drop in net income by 1.51% yoy to IDR 3.24 trillion in April 2015 (forming 26% of our FY15 est.) compared to IDR 3.29 trillion (+33.73% yoy) in April 2014. Net interest income grew double-digit (+12.6% yoy) on the back of higher loan of IDR 253.96 trillion (+5.09% yoy). However, lower non-interest income growth of 9.37% to IDR 2.51 trillion weighed on BNI’s overall net income in April 2015. BNI revised its loan growth target for this year to 14-15% vs. 17% previously due to slower economic growth in Indonesia.
  • We might revise our TP if the bank posts lower net income growth in 1H15. Currently, we still maintain our TP due to our conservative loan growth target of 12% yoy for FY15 vs. 14-15% of BNI’s revised-loan growth target.
  • 1Q15 NPAT grew 17.7% yoy to IDR 2.82 trillion, forming 23% of our FY15 est.
  • Loans grew slower than expected in 1Q15, only +9.1% yoy or -2.9% qoq, due to slower economic growth and Rupiah depreciation.
  • Higher NIM of 6.5% drives NII to grow +1.9% qoq, supported by higher yield on loan by 30bps.
  • Management tone is positive on Indonesia but remains cautious on some regional exposures.
  • Since our last report on 4 May 2015 when we maintain “BUY” rating for BBNI with a TP of IDR 7,650 based on cost of equity of 12.7% and FY15E BVPS of IDR 3,708 to IDR 3,741, BNI’s share price has corrected by 12.8%. We maintain “BUY” with TP of IDR 7,650 (potential upside of +36.7%).

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)

Current Rating: ACCUMULATE

Current TP: 13,100

 

  • Bank Rakyat posted net income of IDR 7.41 trillion in April 2015 (forming 28.5% of our FY15 est.), dropped 5.12% yoy compared to IDR 7.81 trillion in the same period last year. The lower net income growth is in line with the slower loan growth of 8.26% yoy (vs. 19.58% yoy in April 2014). BRI’s customer deposit grew 11.8% yoy, higher than its loan growth of 8.2% yoy, hence interest expense went up by 50.8% to IDR 9.12 trillion; higher than interest income growth of only 20% to IDR 26.7 trillion.
  • We might revise our TP if the bank decides to make significant changes in its loan growth target for this year. Currently, we still maintain our TP due to our conservative loan growth target of 14% yoy vs. 15-17% previously target for FY15.
  • NPAT in 1Q15 grew 3.5% yoy to IDR 6.1 trillion, forming 21% of our FY15 estimates.
  • NII up to 1Q15 was disappointing following the decline in qoq loans growth by -0.6% and lower NIM of -94bps.
  • Fees and commissions qoq growth also declined due to lower E-Banking transaction value by -4.1% qoq and no tariff increase in 1Q15.
  • Management’s tone on Indonesia loan book outlook is positive.
  • Since our last report on 11 May 2015 when we maintain “ACCUMULATE” rating for BBRI with a TP of IDR IDR 13,100 based on WACC of 11.4% and DPS of IDR 264, BRI’s share price has corrected by 7.9%. We maintain “ACCUMULATE” with a TP of IDR 13,100 (potential upside of +20.7%).

 

 

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)

Current Rating: ACCUMULATE

Current TP: 3,350

 

  • Telkom aims to muster up to IDR 7 trillion from the bond market. The bond issuance was part of the company’s IDR 12 trillion sustaining bonds offering, which would be carried out in a two-year period. The IDR 7 trillion worth of bonds will consist of 4 series:
    • Seri A: total value of IDR 2.2 trillion with fix rate of 9.9% for 7 years period.
    • Seri B: total value of IDR 2.1 trillion with fix rate of 10.3% for 10 years period.
    • Seri C: total value of IDR 1.2 trillion with fix rate of 10.6% for 15 years period.
    • Seri D: total value of IDR 1.5 trillion with fix rate of 11% for 30 years period.
  • We see that the bonds issuance would be positive for Telkom’s performance as 87% of the raised funds will be used to finance its infrastructure development and the remaining 13% to support merger and acquisition plans. Telkom is planning to allocate the funds for several main projects, such as the company’s fiber optic network across Indonesia, as well as the USD 250 million Indonesia Global Gateway submarine cable. However, Telkom is facing a challenge on the bond sale, on the back of uncertain market sentiments due to the depreciating Rupiah against USD.
  • 1Q15 revenue increased 11.1% yoy at IDR 23.6 trillion, as a result of data services that grew 27.6% yoy.
  • Net profit increased 6.4% to IDR 3.8 trillion for the quarter, driven mainly by 12.1% NPAT increase in Telkomsel, its subsidiary.
  • Maintain positive outlook for FY15 on continuing growth in mobile services from data monetising.
  • We maintain “ACCUMULATE” with TP of IDR 3,350 based on WACC of 10.2% and terminal growth of 3%. We should see potential upside in data revenue for FY15 from higher 4G selling prices.

Posted on June 17, 2015, in Berita. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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